成果｜陈志钢等在CWE发文揭示新冠肺炎疫情对中国农民工汇款、留守家庭收入和贫困的影响
浙江大学中国农村发展研究院国际院长、国际食物政策研究所（IFPRI）资深研究员陈志钢教授在经济学SSCI期刊China & World Economy（《中国与世界经济》）发表文章“Impacts of COVID-19 on Migrants, Remittances, Incomes, and Poverty in China: A Microsimulation Analysis”，文章作者为张玉梅（第一作者）、詹悦（IFPRI研究助理）、刁新申（IFPRI资深研究员）、陈志钢（通讯作者）、Sherman Robinson（IFPRI研究员）。
新冠肺炎疫情对中国农民工汇款、留守家庭收入和贫困有什么影响？
Impacts of COVID-19 on Migrants, Remittances, Incomes, and Poverty in China: A Microsimulation Analysis
China & World Economy
张玉梅、詹悦、刁新申、陈志钢、Sherman Robinson
DOI：https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12392
研究内容
本文通过自上而下的宏观-微观模拟分析方法，将宏观经济部门的增长预测与基于2018 年中国家庭追踪调查的个体数据相链接，依据Zhang等（2020）基于社会核算矩阵乘数分析法估计的疫情对宏观经济冲击作为外生变量输入微观模拟模型，分析疫情对农民工个体和家庭收入的影响，以及对居民收入分配和贫困的影响。
研究发现
在疫情期间，农民工及其家庭受到的冲击很大，大约70%的农民工可能会失去部分工资收入，尤其在中小微企业工作的农民工受到的影响最大。农民工收入的减少将直接导致农民工汇款下降，使得约50%的留守家庭收入减少，平均减少幅度超过45%。近13%的非贫困家庭受疫情影响后可能陷入贫困。疫情也导致贫困差距指数上升，意味着许多贫困家庭将更加贫困。
研究贡献
文章的主要贡献有以下三个方面：第一，从研究议题上看，现有文献对农民工这一脆弱群体的影响研究较少，特别是少有研究关注疫情对以农民工汇款为主要收入来源的留守家庭的影响。文章弥补了现有的研究的不足。第二，从分析数据来看，目前聚焦疫情影响的研究主要使用宏观数据，而由于数据采集的滞后性，缺乏有代表性的个体微观数据。文章采用了微观模拟模型，评估了疫情对农民工微观个体及其家庭的冲击，进而分析了对不同人群影响的差异。第三，从政策含义上看，文章揭示了农民工及其家庭在冲击下的返贫风险，因此，需要采取更多针对性更强的政策措施来保障农民工及其家庭的收入。
英文摘要
Chinese migrant workers are very exposed to the shocks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Falling remittances adversely affect their families who rely on remittance incomes. The impacts of COVID-19 on migrants and remittance-receiving households are assessed using a nationally representative household dataset and a microsimulation model. We found about 70 percent of migrant workers lost part of their wage income during the pandemic lockdown period and rural migrants working in small and medium enterprises were affected the most. This led to about 50 percent of remittance-receiving households being affected adversely by falling remittances, and the average decline in such income was more than 45 percent. Nearly 13 percent of pre-pandemic nonpoor remittance-receiving households could fall into poverty, raising the poverty rate among remittance-receiving households by 4 percentage points. Many households that were poor prior to the pandemic became more impoverished. The results indicate that social protection programs targeting vulnerable migrants and their families at home are important.
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